Fig. 4

Epidemiological burden in counterfactual scenarios. a Total clinical cases per 1000 population, in geography-specific areas of each IMD decile (1, most deprived decile; 10, least deprived), in the counterfactual health prevalence scenario, and in the counterfactual constant age structure scenario. The original model is shown for comparison in pale lines. b Total deaths per 1000 population, in geography-specific areas of each IMD decile, under the same scenarios