Fig. 4

Forecasting performance under different hospital catchment area definitions using future forecast cases. A Median interval score (taken over all forecast dates and locations) for each forecast horizon, with the values highlighted for a 14-day forecast horizon in the grey-shaded region. B Median interval score for each forecast date; 14-day forecast horizon. C Median interval score for the top 40 acute NHS Trusts (by total COVID-19 admissions); 14-day forecast horizon