Fig. 3

Forecasting performance under different hospital catchment area definitions (by UTLA) using future observed cases. A Median interval score (taken over all forecast dates and locations) for each forecast horizon, with the values highlighted for a 7-day forecast horizon in the grey-shaded region. B Median interval score for each forecast date; 7-day forecast horizon. C Median interval score for the 40 acute NHS Trusts with the most total COVID admissions (descending top to bottom); 7-day forecast horizon. Trusts are defined by their three-letter organisational code; see [15] for a full list of Trust codes and names