Fig. 2

Example of retrospective forecasts made 13 December 2020 for Mid And South Essex NHS Foundation Trust. These forecasts are made based on UTLA-level catchment area definitions and using future observed cases. Shown are median forecasts (line) and 50% and 90% quantile forecasts (dark and light ribbon, respectively). The black solid line shows admissions observed up to the forecast date (13 December, marked by a vertical dotted line), while the black dashed line and points show realised admissions, for reference